Ringfencing without protection

Well they’re doing it in Victoria – isolating outbreaks and dealing with them as ‘hotspots’ while letting the rest of the State return to normal and – what’s most important – full, effective, potent functioning.

The thing is, always was, the lockdown tactic crippled the State ostensibly in order to protect it.

Easily seen, or more easily seen, perhaps, by thinking of it as a miitary attack by paratroopers.

To make the analogy more exact perhaps paratroopers armed with insidious anti government propaganda so’s you’re not just frightened of the paratroopers but you’re frightened of them spreading their creed, undermining your nation, your government that way.

That’s the sort of thing places like China and North Korea are frightened of so it’s quite realistic really.

So imagine it; there they are, parachuting in here and there, destroying and spreading their infectious creed. What’s the Army going to do? How is the Army going to deal with it?

By ordering everyone in the nation to stand still, stay in place, don’t move – most important – don’t work ! ? By bringing the nation to a standstill. By destroying businesses by the thousand. By destroying gainful employment, jobs, by the thousands and diminishing the nation’s available wealth?

Nonsense. Total nonsense. The Army would do nothing like that. Quite the opposite it would want the nation going into top gear, working and interacting as never before.

And it would isolate outbreaks and ‘ring fence’ them just as Victoria is doing now.

And outside of that fence there’d be intense scurrying activity as when a thousand ants congregate around a morsel on the ground or as white blood cells congregate around infection.

Activity would increase everywhere.

And the activity would penetrate the ring fenced areas of infection and bring to bear all appropriate measure to fight back and control the situation.

Such as: to drop the analogy and get to the point – isolating and protecting the elderly and infirm. Which action by itself would reduce the expected mortality rate by 80% (given that they’re not isolated and grouped together with the infection in their midst. Surely that doesn’t need saying? But it does. That is exactly what they did in New York and other places – virtually deliberately infected closely packed groups of highly susceptible individuals. No. Don’t do that. )

And therefore – reduce by 80% – that’s a major and most important step. But I hear no mention of it after an hour or so of listening and watching coverage (which is incessant) of the Victorian actions.

The corollary of the 80% reduction, of course, is that the threat to the rest is much reduced and that’s a great psychological benefit and practical benefit in consideration of physical measures that ought to be taken.

Four Covid Choices/Paths

Seems to me there’s only four ways:

  1. The natural way: we all get Covid until herd immunity develops.
  2. The science way: we wait for a vaccine.
  3. The prayerful way: we pray for it to go away of itself.
  4. The hideaway: we ‘lockdown’ and hide until our civilisation dies. (also known as the ‘dieaway’)

We are currently – in Australia – devoted and committed to the fourth way, I think, that’s right isn’t it?

And while we are slowly dying there’s of course many who pray for it to go away and others who pray for the scientists to get a move on.

But generally we are committed to ‘hideaway’ and ‘dieaway’ as witness the recent events in Victoria where some Covid was detected and immediately there’s lockdowns and panics left right and centre.

Lets look at the four ‘ways’. Starting with the last first:

4. The hideaway/dieaway: Originally adopted as a way of slowing admissions to clinics and hospitals so’s the medical infrastructure would be able to cope it has morphed, unspoken and undeclared into a system seen as ‘fighting’ the virus and ‘beating’ the virus and keeping Australia virus free.

Hence the panic when there’s a case found. No cause for panic in the original scheme – quite the opposite, cases were meant to be continual and current and fed into the system in manageable stream. No cause for panic there if a case is found. It is expected.

But now it’s a cause for panic because it means the system isn’t achieving this undeclared objective: freeing Australia of the virus.

And it costs: in human lives, in human suffering, in collapse of our economy in the wide sense, meaning every part of the nation is in danger of rusting away.

3. The science way. This may work or it may not. In 50 years they’ve never managed to make a vaccine for the common cold, which is a corona virus. And as with the flu a vaccine may well turn out to be specific for only one strain and require a remake every year and even perhaps for every location.

2. The prayerful way. Nice if it works. Some viruses seem to ‘disappear’ in the warm months: flu for instance. But they haven’t gone away. They just don’t flourish well enough to cause symptoms. It seems very unlikely this will ‘go away’.

  1. Suffer the virus and let it run until herd immunity is reached.

This is the one thing totally abhorred, that they want to avoid at all costs, this is the fearsome monster the world is deathly frightened of to where it will happily freeze into place slowly die in place rather than have happen.

But they never tell us exactly what the threat is. We glean bits of information by dribs and drabs, a little here a little there. And we have to thread our way through the misinformation, the misdirection. Like ‘authoritative’ sites informing us that there’s, say, 8 million cases and half a million death.

They don’t say it, they leave it for you to figure out, but that’s a 6.25% death rate isn’t it?

Certainly would be a fearsome thing if that were true. But it is not true. Not even the wildest establishment mouthpieces claim anything like that any more.

Realistically death rates are estimated/calculated to be a median of 0.26%.

And the virus does not spread to the total population but is calculated to only spread to less than 50%.

Australia: 25,000,000 people.

50% = 12,500,000

0.26% OF 12,500,000 = 32,500

32,500 deaths if the virus ran wild in Australia and treatments don’t improve.

But: Dr John Ioannidis says the deaths are so heavily weighted towards the elderly and infirm that in Switzerland, for instance, only 2.5% of the deaths were under the age of 60.

And 69% of the deaths were over the age of 80.

So that if the elderly were protected by quarantine for a month while the virus spread then the expected death toll would be 31% of 32,500.

And that is: 10,075

Most of whom would be between 60 and 80 years old.

2.5% of the deaths being below 60. That is: 812.

So there’d be 9263 deaths between the age of 60 and 80.

And the more of the elderly you protect the more you lower the death rate.

So that’s what the real situation is. That’s the monster.

The size of that monster has to be measured against the size of the monster we’ve made for ourselves with our ‘stop the world’ policy.

There’s deaths occurring because of the policy, directly attributable to the policy.

There’s much suffering and hardship.

There’s damage to the nation itself in these economic, real life, workaday terms.

And there’s the fact that many of the casualties of Covid would be casualties anyway, if not of Covid then of pneumonia or some other such fatal illness they may have.

So it is hard to weigh it up.

But it sure seems certain that it ought to be weighed up. Match that monster against our own home grown monster.

To decide if we should continue.

And I wouldn’t be at all surprised if most didn’t decide out of sheer sympathy and humanity that we should continue. In order to save those possible 32,000 lives, or 10,000 lives, or whatever it ends up being after taking all measures to save as many as we could.

Because it sure seems terrible to say let it be: let them die, let the virus claim them if it will.

But at the end there’s this one last factor to remember: the virus will not go away. They don’t. So the slow death lockdown has to continue forever as best we know.

Australia has to remain quarantined and with the nation in suspended animation right into the foreseeable future if we don’t let the virus in.

Unless. Unless there’s a third way. Perhaps we could have the best border controls we can manage – and within the country go on with life as normal but being ready at any time to spring into action and quarantine and deal with areas of infection if they happen.

Contain new sources. Stop them spreading widely.

Is that possible? And if it is why not do that now?

And maybe that’s what’s going on in Victoria.

They’re practicing to see if this ‘third way’ is going to be viable.

Who knows – perhaps they even knowingly let the infection in just to make for a live test.

I wouldn’t put anything past them. There’s not many of us would these days, is there.

Happiness

Sometimes when happiness comes you don’t recognise it – isn’t that right?

It takes a while to understand what’s going on and then it dawns on you that you’re simply feeling happiness.

That’s true I think. So I wonder just how widespread it is? And it means you’ve not been happy, though you thought you were and you’ve forgotten how it feels to be happy.

I wonder if whole populations can be struck with that amnesia and that sorry condition?

Many travellers report on the happiness they find in different locations in the world – typically totally impoverished primitive native villages.

I have seen it in New Guinea, in the Solomons and in Aboriginal communities in Australia.

Perhaps they are last outposts on earth of natural human happiness?

A Granular Approach To Fighting Covid

This recession is by design, of course, the design of the knee jerk and out of proportion and inappropriate covid response.

It would be better if the nation were seen as a collection of ‘cells’ with each cell populated by people who volunteer to be part of it.

Within that cell they live and work as usual, mixing and mingling without onerous and restrictive, debilitating covid restrictions, just as we do at home.

This enables work to continue as usual. Building projects, housing, is a main contender for inclusion in such a programme.

In the event of one person in the ‘cell’ being infected with covid then every person in the cell immediately has to be subject to the same restrictions as that person and that all infected persons are restricted to.

That’s the natural concomitant of being part of that cell, of any cell.It is precisely what happens in the case of our actual present day ‘cells’ – our family homes. If one member of our family gets infected the whole family is subject to the same processes.

The current approach is to see everyone of us as infected and demands that we take precautions against every other one of us, all against all.

It has killed and is killing and will kill the whole nation.It is very largely wasted effort.

It is obvious, it is a matter of record, that Australia has had a minute level of covid contagion in the last couple of months. this means, of course, that over the vast preponderance of the country the measures have been not necessary.

Wasted effort. Wasted loss of production. Wasted loss of jobs. Wasted failure to create wealth.Waste.

Massive waste.

If a granular approach were adopted then the nation largely returns to full on performance, natural life.

The assumption being that we are all healthy until proven not to be. At least within our working, productive environments. Which is the guts of the matter.

And when an infection breaks out then it is immediately contained within a ‘cell’.

The mechanism springs into action and we all know what we’re doing and where the danger is.

The actual danger to those within a cell can also be assessed on the basis of information now available.

It becomes very clear that the vast majority of infections of young healthy people are asymptomatic.

Hence if you get infected within a cell your chances are heavily weighted in that direction.

The actual death rate amongst infected is down around 0.1% and if you remove the elderly and infirm from the equation it is even less.

The elderly and infirm, of course, would be removed from such ‘cells’ not permitted for their own sake to participate in such cells unless they were clearly aware of the risk and volunteered for it.

The death rate for the elderly and infirm can get as high as 15% it is said in some reports.

So a real danger for them.

But for the rest a much less danger and an avoidance of all the danger of a destroyed economy, a crippled country.

If we just adopt a military type strategy and assume our ‘cells’ to be healthy and use them as they are intended to be used for the benefit of the larger body while ever we can.

Our human bodies do not cripple the arm or the head because there’s an infection in the foot and neither should we.

Our current policy is almost an insult to us all inasmuch as it bespeaks an apparent attitude that we’re incapable of devising anything better than slow suicide.

A Child’s Unformed Psyche.

I recently saw a child change his mind about the computer game he was making.

Small children can apparently make computer games nowadays with little or no programming skills. I imagine some kind of template and select and order components thing. Very good whatever it is.

The child witnessed a reconciliation between warring adults. Doing their warring in front of, within earshot of, the children as they so often thoughtlessly, carelessly and dangerously do.

As, in fact, to look for a second much further afield to a closely allied area, the ‘child protection’ agencies up to and including militant police do – astonishingly. Self assured and self justificatory to an astonishing degree and glowing with righteous indignation and as prepared to wield instant power and inflict damage on a hapless parent or family as any trigger happy terrorist they think nothing of demonstrating, manifesting their awful presence right there in front of children.

In fact they seem to prefer it.

Perhaps believing they are manifesting in a child’s mind a rescuing ‘super man’ ( or ‘superwoman’ ) coming to save them from the clutches of these awful parents.

I think such self deceiving ego centricity is more than merely possible, I think it probably.

They are sadly – very sadly – criminally sadly – mistaken in many, many instances.

They in fact strike unnamed terror into the hearts and minds of children is what they do.

So back to this child. It witnessed in numb silence an exchange of adult psychodrama power which in this instance concluded on a happy note.

The child, unprompted, came forward after the event and without mentioning the event, of course, as is the norm, announced he was making a game and had suddenly thought he could make a game without nasties in it, without bad and evil things, but a game that was happy !

Imagine the dynamic. Imagine what might have happened within that child. To be set like a stone in a sea of apparent hurt and violence and pain and anger and injustice with a heart and mind in anguish because of how that environment was the whole world to that child – ‘acting out’ as the psychologists say, mimicking reality as he knew it, by devising computer games which – as so many today – all ? – were full of violence and hatred and hurt – and hunched over and head and trying desperately to ignore and avoid the ‘war’ , the conflict going on around him, which involved him so much.

Numbly set in a sea of darkness.

And then a light broke through. Came peace. Came a little ray, a little example, a little of the presence of kindness, understanding, forgiving: love.

Just a tiny.

And the child’s heart rushed to meet it and his whole world changed in a moment….

Nations At War – No People

Here we in what – the fourth day ? – of ‘heightened tensions’ and ‘worsening relations’ and ‘trade war’ or whatever, between the USA and China.

And the media follows it all with relish, eagerly, salivating as it goes.

Clearly prepared to follow it to where they are reporting on troop movements, military actions… death.

You can almost see them panting at the leash wanting to be first to report the first casualties of this ‘situation’.

But to my knowledge at any rate not a word as yet about the Chinese People of the American People.

It is not they who are doing this. It is just they who are and will suffer.

But they never get a mention.

Strikes me as wrong.

Well Said, Sir… But Who Is Listening?

I don’t think anyone is listening. Is the trouble.

Here’s an extracted paragraph from an excellent little article I will link to, later:

As usual, the politicians don’t admit their shocking mistakes. Had they done so they might at least have ensured this disaster won’t be repeated during the next inevitable pandemic. Instead they are now prescribing increasingly demented restrictions, such as a maximum of ten diners in all restaurants whatever their size, ten worshippers in vast cathedrals, and schools not immediately re-opened. On top of which they refuse to admit the obvious, that sun and fresh air have always been the enemy of the virus.

Isn’t it totally true? Isn’t it totally condemning in the awful truth of those simple examples it gives? Totally condemning of our political and media establishment and – this is the really awful bit – our own complicity in their crime inasmuch as we don’t speak out, don’t object, don’t put a stop to it, don’t demand better behaviour?

It is an article in the Spectator by a Mr David Flint who I’ve been unaware of until now.

https://www.spectator.com.au/2020/05/comfort-the-comfortable-afflict-the-afflicted/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OZWH%20%2020200523%20%20Back%20to%20Brexit%20%20AL&utm_content=OZWH%20%2020200523%20%20Back%20to%20Brexit%20%20AL+CID_517511bdc5c51e25ab5812d5304d2256&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Australia&utm_term=Comfort%20the%20comfortable%20afflict%20the%20afflicted

What Is The Covid Infection Fatality Rate?

That’s known as the IFR. It means the chance of dying if you get the illness.

It shows the percentage of infected people that consequently die of that illness.

A very important number.

That generally we are not told. In the beginning because it was not known – in the middle because the media didn’t care, being more interesting in whipping up the fever and the hype and promoting panic lockdowns and now – I don’t know. Shame perhaps. They (media, politicians, et al) don’t want the truth to come out until they’ve prepared some ‘ass-covering’ stories.

Well here’s an authoritative report – Mr John Ioannidis again, a much ignored authority from the very beginning – mentioned in an article from the Spectator magazine.

He estimates the true figure to be in a range always below 0.5%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1.full.pdf

and this is the Spectator article:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/stanford-study-suggests-coronavirus-might-not-be-as-deadly-as-flu