Link and title of Youtube video from which the transcript was taken and translation and synopsis created. (Synopsis at the bottom).
Why haven’t there been any mass protests in Ukraine yet? – Bondarenko (“Official Mind Noise” YT channel)
Почему в Украине до сих пор нет массового протеста? – Бондаренко
Ш!УМ ВЛАСТИ
“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9CJwh1BHkc“
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Bondarenko: No Protest
“Dear Konstantin Petrovich, I have a question. Yesterday, a rumor went around that the new [Iranian] Ayatollah is supposedly being treated in Moscow. And someone also joked that Netanyahu is there too. Just different clinics. And I suddenly caught myself thinking,” writes Anna, “that I wasn’t surprised. What kind of strange new world is this? Post-postmodernism. Elites are apparently allowed to do anything. The rest of us are supposed to accept it as a given. Do you have a similar feeling, and has there been anything like this in history, because I, Anna writes, can’t recall anything like it.”
You know, one of my favorite films is “Life is a Miracle” by Emir Kusturica. It contains an allegory for the very essence of the war in the Balkans, the Bosnian-Serb conflict in the early nineties. It’s when the sides are fighting, engaged in bloody battles, but at night, suddenly a mine cart appears, carrying the leaders of the warring factions. Half-naked girls are laying out lines of cocaine on the rails in front of them, and together they snort the cocaine and ride off to music and so on. And the war goes on. You see? So, war in the era of postmodernism is quite a phenomenon.
So, let’s begin. YouTube community, friends, not all questions may be included because there are a huge number. So, let’s go.
Denis: Konstantin Petrovich, how can we help our political prisoners? Why has everything stalled? No one is doing anything, and we hear nothing. Thank you.
Our political prisoners can only be helped by international organizations, which have simply, let’s say, adopted the position of an ostrich [idiom: ignoring a problem] that doesn’t want to quarrel with the very structures that are the customers of this war, that are sponsoring Ukraine today, etc., etc., etc. So they don’t notice Ukrainian political prisoners. Moreover, by international standards, there are supposedly no political prisoners in Ukraine. Ukraine is a democratic country, and so on and so forth. That’s the tragedy of this situation too: that virtually no one has the power to help them.
M. Good evening. A question with a reference to the last episode: Can outright lies, panegyrics [excessive praise], and bias be called a ‘different opinion’? Does it then follow that the lies of [specific journalists or figures mentioned, likely pro-Kremlin propagandists] are a ‘different opinion’ deserving of attention? Where, in your opinion, does that line lie?
Actually, there is no line anymore. Truly, everything has become so muddled. If someone were to be prosecuted for libel today, they would come and say, “Well, that’s a value judgment” or “It’s an attempt to express a personal opinion.” There are no standards in journalism now. If earlier people talked about how journalism should have certain standards, like those developed by the BBC—journalism students were once told about them—those standards are not in effect now. Moreover, these standards are now considered harmful. And so today, the information space is essentially a continuous information war without rules.
Tell me, if the war continues for, say, another 3 years, a user writes, with mobilization as it is now, could this lead to a social explosion? Or will people just sit quietly at home no matter what? I’m interested in whether there is that red line that the government could cross to make the lid blow up [idiom: for the situation to explode] from within. You’ve answered this question before, I remember, but I don’t remember about the universally beloved ‘red line’ inside Ukraine. Does it exist?
The thing is, it doesn’t. And most likely, there will be a series of small protests, a series of small, localized actions, which are unlikely to develop into anything bigger. Although some of my colleagues—yesterday I was talking to a very close friend, and he says, “I look at the situation in Ukraine, and I see it’s the situation of early 2013, when those ‘Vradievkas’ [reference to a 2013 protest in Vradievka, Ukraine, seen as a precursor to the 2014 Euromaidan] were popping up, those various precursors to the future Maidan.” But I disagreed with him. I disagreed because I think there could be many such Vradievkas. But the goal of each individual in the current situation is, firstly, to survive. And secondly, not to attract the attention of the authorities. So very many people will rather hide in their homes, hoping that if they come for them, their neighbors will fight them off, and nothing more. Especially since there’s no leader. Someone would have to become the leader that people would follow. I don’t see that leader.
So, where is the continuation, asks? Healthy forces that can stop the genocide of the Ukrainian people. Konstantin Petrovich, they don’t exist. Forces are usually those groups of the population that unite, that create a structure, that have a certain formal or informal communication among themselves, that have a common vision, common ideas, common goals. As of today, we don’t have these forces. Excuse me, but currently, no political force is the one that represents the interests of the people.
Here’s a good question: Who controls Trump? Natalia asks.
Trump is controlled by Trump. That’s it. He is probably one of those politicians who are quite difficult to control. And anyone who tries to control him understands this. That’s precisely why many in the United States watch his actions with horror and can’t pin him down [idiom: can’t control or predict him]. I’ve already said that Trump simply has three groups of influence in his inner circle. No one can say that these groups permanently dominate Trump. Even his family—Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, his sons, Steve Witkoff, who can also be considered practically family—they can’t fully influence Trump. They can suggest a move, perhaps. But Trump makes decisions independently. And that in itself is a big problem for American politicians who are used to a completely different kind of politics, where certain influence groups or corporate interests push and lobby for a particular decision through complex maneuvers. And here we have this spontaneity and unpredictability.
Aha. I want to know, Konstantin: Donbas, Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Uman, Galicia—even after peace comes to our home, will they be able to live in love? I’m very interested in your opinion specifically.
Love ended, if it ever really existed between them, as a certain banned Nobel laureate [likely referring to a Russian or Soviet author, possibly banned in Ukraine] said. As for the current situation, Ukraine’s regions are so fragmented. No matter how much we talk about the unity of the nation, no matter how much we say Ukraine is united, this fragmentation of the people, of the citizens of individual regions, manifests itself so clearly that it will be another knot of contradictions that will need to be resolved somehow after the war. We have a huge number of taboo topics. We don’t voice them. We’re afraid. Look, Zelenskyy—what good laws about sexual offenses in the Armed Forces… ask [tone is sarcastic]. Yes, it’s a normal law. And everyone’s thinking, “Wait, do we need a law to ensure no one is discriminated against, abused, or raped?” No, try to publicly raise the question: what needs to be done so that Ukrainians stop hating Ukrainians? They’ll tear you apart [idiom: criticize you harshly]. They’ll say, “How can you say that? This doesn’t exist with us!” So, what to do? Or try to raise the question: what needs to be done to restore relations between Russia and Ukraine in the shortest possible time after the war? You’ll get an article [likely meaning criticized or labeled a traitor] immediately. No, let’s be careful, to avoid that. Or what to do to reconcile veterans with civilians, with TCC [Territorial Recruitment Centers, i.e., military enlistment offices] staff? Or what to do to reconcile veterans with draft evaders, with the millions of draft evaders? What can be done in this regard?
If we consider Gorbachev’s Perestroika as reality, will there be a tribunal for the… over the violators of order? [The phrasing is odd, likely a playful or rhetorical flourish] Tribunal over the violators of order. Well, our user is joking, apparently. I see. Well, thank you very much.
So, Konstantin Petrovich, sorry for the long lead-in. Alexander recalls the memoirs of the Zaporizhian Cossack Nikita Korzh about the customs of the Zaporizhian Sich. In particular, there’s a story about a certain Cossack who broke the law and went through all the stages of the Cossack court. Every time they found him guilty or called on him to admit his guilt and repent, the stubborn Cossack denied it, stuck to his guns. It ended with the Kish Otaman [leader of the Cossack host] ordering the stubborn man to be flogged within an inch of his life, so he would wise up and listen to his elders. In the end, the stubborn man did wise up and listen. Currently in Ukraine, there is a person with whose tacit consent laws and the constitution are systematically violated. Question: Who in the world today could play the role of the Kish Otaman? And who would be the final authority if the Kish Otaman himself, frankly, is no saint?
No one. Actually, there are states that, in principle, have the capabilities to establish order in one or another part of the globe. But usually, the intervention of these states leads to long-term turbulence in those states. You know, kidnapping a president, killing a president, imprisoning him, or something else—that’s half the battle. But how to maintain the governability of that state afterward? That’s the real question. Because as a result, you could, of course, imagine Trump getting angry and saying, “Bring me Zelenskyy,” and they bring him with a bag over his head. But that would simply lead to consequences for Ukraine like we’ve already seen in Libya or Somalia. Well, then they’ll say [the Ukrainians] did it to themselves. They themselves, of course.
So, good day. A certain Ilya Remeslo [likely a Russian opposition figure or lawyer] made some rather unpleasant remarks about Putin, a user named Igor writes, and was very critical of the actions of the current government in Russia. Is a ‘Time of Troubles’ [Smuta, a historical period of chaos in Russia] really possible in Russia, or why were we allowed to see this? Is it a sign of preparation for a freeze [of the conflict]? So ‘zrada’ [Ukrainian for ‘betrayal’, a popular ironic term for expecting bad news] is possible in Russia too, it turns out.
No, actually, I think in this situation, they’re simply testing certain information technologies. If the stars light up, it means someone needs it, right? [Quoting a famous Soviet song]. So don’t forget that Russia is living in a mode of preparation for serious political processes. There are elections this year; a large number of different opinions will be expressed, a large number of different technologies will be tested. And there is a significant portion of Russians who support Remeslo’s position. So it’s simply necessary to conduct a certain assessment of public sentiment. So take these statements more lightly.
Question: Have we really reached the point where internal enemies are more dangerous and frightening than external ones? I’m not asking idly, as I have relatives who moved east, 20, 10, and even a year ago from Mariupol to Ukraine [government-controlled territory], and then to Europe, and after the 25th [*likely February 24, 2022, start of the full-scale invasion*] back to Mariupol. It seems to me this is a condemnation of the Ukrainian system, if people who weathered the storm in basements end up unwanted.
Yes, that’s true. The thing is, Ukraine, the Ukrainian leadership, the Ukrainian authorities actually disregard, treat their own citizens with contempt, especially certain groups. So the conversation the government has with the people is very simple: “A rifle in your hands and off to the front.” Well, not a rifle, obviously, it’s an assault rifle now, and into the assault infantry. That’s it. And don’t get clever here. There’s no gradation, no use of experience, potential, and so on. There is Zelenskyy and the government, there is this vertical of power that ensures the viability of Zelenskyy and his team. And then there are the rest, the attitude towards whom is…
Let’s check the live stream chat. Poland wants to leave [the EU], Vladimir writes from the EU. What would that entail?
Poland does not want to leave the EU. That’s an idle thought. There are individual politicians who make statements about it, but neither the President nor the Prime Minister of Poland makes such statements about leaving the European Union. That’s the first thing. Second, if you look at the sociological picture, there is a certain part of society that is dissatisfied with the European Union, but it does not constitute a critical mass today.
Question. I have no doubt that Kostya and Alexander condemn the activities of the TCC [military enlistment offices]. Do they need to be held accountable, and most importantly, who can punish them? Putin, Zelenskyy, or Poroshenko?
Punishment for the TCC will come after Zelenskyy’s system of power is dismantled. After Zelenskyy and the system on which his power is based are destroyed, after they effectively become a thing of the past, the TCC, as part of that system, will stand before a court.
Oh, Anna says: “Please ask Konstantin Petrovich if there’s a chance to see him on weekends on the streets of Vienna, where he likes to walk. We walked and walked, here and there, and unfortunately, we didn’t manage to meet you.” I would have loved to.
Ah, yes, I’m practically always on the streets of Vienna. I constantly have a large number of meetings, even spontaneous ones. People come up, recognize me, thank me for my work, and so on. But to say that I’m always somewhere specific, that I have a favorite cafe where I constantly drink coffee—that would probably be an exaggeration. But in general, I’m a person who doesn’t hide and doesn’t lead a reclusive lifestyle.
Is a scenario of Ukraine’s disintegration into small states possible? Perhaps through a conspiracy of mayors? And why did Yugoslavia fall apart so completely, but Ukraine hasn’t?
It is possible, unfortunately, especially since this scenario is being seriously discussed by Western experts and politicians. As one of the options. Clearly, now it must be seen exclusively as a risk scenario, a negative scenario for Ukraine, but in general, there are many factors that show that the difficulties existing in Ukrainian society could be used to satisfy the needs and interests of regional elites.
A question. Many Ukrainians claim that the NATO accession case is just a pretext for war, assuring that Russia always had aggressive intentions of expansion. Does Konstantin agree with these thoughts?
No, I don’t agree. In this situation, for Russia, the question is not about restoring the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union. It’s about Russia wanting to prove its right to be a hegemon on a global scale, well, to influence various states and territories. And it demands corresponding treatment for itself, including from the NATO states.
Is a war between Poland and Germany possible?
Theoretically, war is possible between anyone. But for now, in this situation, if we’re talking about the short term, this is in the realm of fantasy.
So, there’s one user I really like. He says: “I think Sasha smokes, but Kostya doesn’t.” Or “Sasha loves chocolate, but Kostya doesn’t eat chocolate.” Listen, you know what? He’s probably right, because I don’t smoke, by the way, I never have. Except maybe a cigar from time to time, like once a year. And I really don’t like chocolate. Or sweets in general. See, you guessed everything. You can sit in front of the monitor during the broadcast, put water in the chat, and read people, so to speak. That’s exactly how it is, what you said.
No, that’s on a different YouTube channel, with the pyramids [possibly a reference to a mystical or pseudoscientific channel, implying ‘reading’ people is nonsense].
I’m already, you know, I’m not surprised by anything anymore, to be honest. Really. Nothing. And I want to tell you that… Oh, well, that’s enough of that. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if this Mariya Tykha [Ukrainian singer who expressed pro-Russian sentiments] becomes the mayor of Kyiv, or Usyk [Ukrainian boxer] becomes president. Why not? You understand, she’s invested so much in those lips [sarcastic remark about her appearance, implying superficiality qualifies her for politics]. Not just the lips…
So, Konstantin Petrovich, Europe wants to weaken Russia and prevent it from advancing. But wouldn’t ‘busification’ [slang for aggressive mobilization tactics by TCC, named after the buses used], on the contrary, make the situation at the front critical and cause a collapse somewhere? Where?
I don’t know. I think the Russian General Staff is also interested in knowing where it might collapse. That’s why they constantly conduct combat reconnaissance [literally ‘checking by battle’]. I’m definitely not a military specialist. I don’t know where it might collapse.
So, questions are just bombarding… “What should we do? They’re herding us in Ukraine.” Well, these are rhetorical questions, a person writes the same thing several times in a row. Well, what can Ukrainians do? That’s the point, really. In this situation, I tell everyone: survive. Right now, it’s about each person’s personal survival. To survive. Because to say, “Everyone, go to the Maidan tomorrow”—that would actually be a provocation. It would be provoking a massacre. Because this government, unlike Yanukovych’s government, will not, excuse me, snot and cry [idiom: will not be weak or hesitant]. It will shoot its own citizens.
Is Kostya interested in the restoration of life in Luhansk, Mariupol, Berdyansk? If so, what is his opinion on this matter?
Well, I have some information, including from relatives, acquaintances, and so on, which I try to piece together into a coherent picture. There are official sources, official data published in the mass media, there are a lot of semi-advertising materials appearing in the media, contradictory data. And there is what I hear from ordinary people. Well, people live, people live everywhere. Normal life is being restored somewhere. Various enterprises are functioning, some people try to live despite everything. Clearly, the war has caused enormous damage and left a deep scar on the souls of very, very many people. Let’s just say that in Luhansk or Donetsk, a whole generation of people has already grown up who were born without knowing Ukraine. For whom Ukraine is something alien, even hostile. And every year, there are more and more such people. That’s for sure.
Question. Lina Vastrylova: How, in essence, could the next government differ from Zelenskyy’s or Poroshenko’s?
It will all depend on whether that incoming government continues to cultivate the ideals of the Maidan, or whether it comes to its senses and becomes the true voice of the citizens’ aspirations, and on how much it can free itself from the influence of intrusive Western partners. Zelenskyy also ran on certain slogans, and people believed him. And at the very beginning, Zelenskyy was perceived as an antithesis not so much to Poroshenko, but to the Maidan itself—that he would pursue a completely different policy. And for the first six months, he even tried to demonstrate that. But then, after Andriy Bohdan’s dismissal, he began to pursue a policy that was no different from Poroshenko’s or Turchynov’s.
So, Bondarenko, tell us, will Russia fall apart and when?
That’s not for me to say. That was Budanov [Head of Ukrainian intelligence] who had a map somewhere with 10 or 15 pieces that Russia would break into. I don’t see such prerequisites yet.
Who currently insures the tankers going to China, a user asks.
I don’t know, honestly. Maritime law and everything related to the insurance sector is frankly not an area I’m knowledgeable in.
Well, this is also a serious question, but still has a semi-joking appearance. How can it be explained that among doctors and teachers, there’s a constant shortage of staff, but among deputies, there’s always 100% staffing?
No, we don’t have 100% staffing. Our Verkhovna Rada is understaffed, and seriously so. It’s impossible to hold an impeachment; we can’t gather the votes for impeachment.
Well, a person writes: “Thank God, I left this Titanic. I don’t regret any money left at the border. And now I watch everything happening there from the sidelines, like this whole mess doesn’t concern me anymore.” That’s the sentiment. Unfortunately, I can’t say that, because I still constantly follow what’s happening in Ukraine. Even though I’ve been living outside Ukraine for almost 3 years now, I still, even when I wake up in the middle of the night, I check where the missiles hit, what the consequences of that night’s shelling were. I constantly follow what this or that politician said. Well, I can’t detach myself from it. After all, it’s my homeland and my country.
Yes. So, yes, indeed, those Kyiv TCC guys are already breaking down doors to apartments, and in general, people are writing about it and spending a lot of time on it. This is really a very important internal theme of high tension right now. And there’s simply no end in sight. You just need to understand that there needs to be some very sharp hook [boxing metaphor: a decisive action]. As, for example, I see the situation: either Trump needs to do something drastic, or, as you mentioned earlier in the program today, there needs to be some kind of breakthrough at the front, one that they’ll try to plug with the last available means, trying to pour in the last bit of water [metaphor: throw everything they have] just to stop it. And then both partners and non-partners would start talking differently. But you see, neither one factor nor the other is present. Or depending on how you look at it.
You see, I understand. Today in the chat, we were discussing that Remeslo, the lawyer, back and forth. Well, where did that come from? I agree with you. It’s purely an informational technology. It’s the same as [the news that] Kiriyenko [Russian official] was in Myrnohrad today [Ukrainian city]—it’s called Dymytrov, you understand? [Pointing out the use of Soviet-era names or confusing reporting]. I mean, he was probably there earlier, they showed it today, meaning that they [Russian side] are also traveling, working, observing. But there’s no [popular] demand [for change].
Look at Trump. Look at Israel. Bam! [Describes the assassination of a Hamas leader]. That’s it. Buried. So where are our such decisions, you understand? That’s probably where all this indignation comes from. But none of this is happening.
Well, no, in Russia, there are also hawks and doves. That’s for sure. There are those who advocate for tougher scenarios and those for softer ones, and they can’t reconcile among themselves either. But in Russia, there is one person who makes the decision: whether to pursue a soft or a hard scenario. Everyone else only proposes and from time to time launches certain information technologies, including ones like launching Mr. Remeslo.
Yes, friends, thank you all very much for being on our stream today. Konstantin Petrovich, thank you for your time and thoughts. Thank you, and see you next time. Thank you all very much. We will definitely see you with Konstantin Petrovich in a week. Take care of yourselves and each other. Peace and light. See you soon.
SYNOPSIS
Key points made by Kostyantyn Bondarenko during the Q&A session, organized by topic:
1. On the Nature of the Current Era & Power
- Postmodernism & Elites: Bondarenko agrees with a viewer’s observation that we live in a “post-postmodern” world where elites feel entitled to do anything, while ordinary people are expected to simply accept it.
- Kusturica’s Allegory: He uses the film Life is a Miracle to illustrate the essence of modern conflict: leaders of warring factions party together at night while the soldiers they command continue to kill each other during the day.
2. On Ukraine: Politics, Society, and the War
- Political Prisoners: International organizations (like the Red Cross or UN) refuse to help Ukrainian political prisoners because acknowledging them would mean acknowledging Ukraine is not a fully democratic state and would upset the current government in Kyiv.
- The Red Line & Protests: There is no “red line” that will trigger a mass uprising (Maidan) right now. Unlike in 2013, people are focused on individual survival and avoiding the attention of the authorities. There is no leader for people to follow.
- Social Fragmentation: Ukraine is deeply fragmented regionally. There are many “taboo” topics that cannot be discussed, such as how to reconcile veterans with draft dodgers, or how to restore peace with Russia after the war.
- The Next Government: Any future Ukrainian leader will be judged by whether they can free themselves from the influence of “obsessive Western partners.” Zelenskyy initially promised a different path but fell in line after six months.
- Disintegration: The scenario of Ukraine breaking apart is possible and is being discussed by Western experts as a “risk scenario” due to regional elites pursuing their own interests.
- Advice to Ukrainians: His main advice is to “survive.” He warns that a call to protest now would be a provocation, as the current government (unlike Yanukovych’s) would not hesitate to shoot its own citizens.
3. On Russia and the War
- Russia’s Goal: The war is not about restoring the USSR, but about Russia asserting its right to be a global hegemon and demanding respect from NATO.
- Internal Russian Politics: The appearance of critical voices in Russia (like Ilya Remeslo) is likely a controlled “information technology” to test public sentiment ahead of elections. While there are hawks and doves in Russia, ultimately one person (Putin) makes the final decision.
- Occupied Territories: A whole generation has grown up in Donetsk and Luhansk that has never known life under Ukrainian control, viewing Ukraine as hostile. This problem will only grow over time.
4. On International Figures and Relations
- Donald Trump: Trump cannot be controlled. He has advisors and family, but he makes decisions independently and spontaneously, which terrifies the traditional American political establishment.
- Poland & EU: Poland is not leaving the EU. While some politicians talk about it, the president and prime minister do not, and there is no popular majority for it.
- Germany & Poland: War between them is theoretically possible, but in the short term, it is “in the realm of fantasy.”
5. On Justice and Accountability
- TCC (Enlistment Offices): They will only be held accountable after Zelenskyy’s system of power is completely dismantled. They are a part of that system.
- International Intervention: No foreign power can act as a “Kish Otaman” (a wise leader/arbiter) to fix Ukraine. While the US could physically remove Zelenskyy, the result would be chaos and state collapse like in Libya or Somalia.