Here’s a place with a lot of good posts:
Here’s a place with a lot of good posts:
Good article here. I commented somewhat heavily. Find it down in the comments section. I call for some terse, pithy texts summing up the situation we can use to convince the doubters.
If you can do that (marketing man?) please do it.
I just realised the whole Covid mess is about statistics and maths, isn’t it?
There’s whole towns in Aus here walking around wearing masks and pretending to do ‘distancing’ and closing businesses, etc. etc, all because Covid, last seen hundreds and hundreds of kilometres away and supposedly immediately well locked up – might suddenly appear and start infecting people.
A chance, see?
There’s assumed to be a chance that it will happen.
A chance that is large enough to justify the imposition of these measures that don’t have some kind of remote chance of causing harm but in fact start doing it immediately.
Then they do things like ‘relax’ the impositions. All all the basis of chance. Like today you can have 5 people in that room you only could have 4 people in yesterday.
Or you can have 20 people in your shop instead of 15.
Or you can now open these businesses where yesterday they had to be closed. That just happened here. Now you can open your gym.
Now that’s presumably – definitely – predicated on ‘chance’.
They have calculated that the chance of someone getting covid in those settings has somehow been reduced to where they can ‘relax’ these prohibitions by that much.
They, of course, let’s pretend, have calculated that the chances of these ‘settings’ in such and such a place are appropriate – they ‘match’ – the prevailing ‘chances’ existing outside the premise doors.
Obviously. If the chances outside the door are such that nearly any person who comes in will have covid then you’d have to have a setup inside where the chance of passing covid on are diminishingly small.
And the other way round. So if the chances of having covid outside were nil then the setup inside could be such that you’d inevitably get covid if you were in there and someone had it – but no one will have it because they can’t because we know the outside is totally absent covid.
So it is all ‘chances’, isn’t it?
That’s another word for ‘Probabilities’.
They are a big deal. Quantum mechanics is all Probabilities. Our world being build on quantum mechanics nowadays, courtesy of our satellite comms, there’s heaps and heaps of people who very well understand all about Probabilities and calculating them.
In fact there probably always have been. There’s always been a surprising (to us unmathematically inclined) number of people with amazing mathematical abilities.
So to make sense of it all we just need to know all about these Probabilities. We could then walk in step with the governments, couldn’t we?
Shoulder to shoulder. We’d agree totally with every move.
But there’s not a word. Not a figure. Not a Probability ever put before us.
No famous mathematicians or unfamous mathematicians trying to get our attention, trying to put facts and figures and calculations before us.
The nearest I can think of is the statisticians who look at the data and draw conclusions from it regarding infection rates and such. They would be an integral part of the whole thing but they don’t go on from there and lay out the Probabilities as they pertain to your corner grocery in woop-woop NSW, do they?
Or even the Woollies in woop-woop.
And we need to know the Probabilities so that appropriate measures can be adopted. Whether to close places up. Whether to tell people to keep their distance. Whether to tell them to wear masks. Whether to tell me not to touch. And so on…
And Probabilities to cover every eventuality within reason. I mean windy or not windy outside, I mean hot or cold, in sunshine or out of it, I mean air conditioned inside or not I mean high ceilinged or low, I mean fans or no fans, open windows or closed windows…. humidity… vapour pressure..
Needs highly skilled, highly technical, very well versed mathematical people to do all those calculations.
And clearly they’ve been done else our govts wouldn’t be happily and so promptly and in so much detail laying out these conditions, would they?
They must know what they’re doing mustn’t they?
Well how about letting us in on it?
Why isn’t it a hot topic of discussion amongst mathematicians and statisticians young and old?
Why are we hearing nothing about it?
It goes on: consider the question of ‘Emergency’.
None of these ‘laws’, these ‘mandates’, would be legal if it were not for a ‘State of Emergency’.
You know? You know that, of course. A ‘State of Emergency’ has to be declared by each State Parliament and then they can let the dogs loose. Excuse the metaphor.
They can then make laws ‘off the cuff’, they can ‘govern by fiat’, they can do all the things that in a parliamentary democracy they are forbidden to do.
And that’s exactly what happens. What has happened and what is still happening. States of Emergency are declared by the Parliaments and then they start issuing the laws. And the coppers then start arresting people on beaches and pregnant women at home. And quite right, too, of course, else they wouldn’t do it. You can’t make a good man do things beyond his conscience.
Now here’s the point: A State of Emergency also depends wholly on Probabilities, doesn’t it?
If there’s no chance of covid coming into your State then there’s no Emergency, is there?
If covid coming into your State is in fact just the same as a common cold coming into your State then there’s no Emergency, is there?
If covid coming into your State is in fact just the same as a severe flu coming into your State then there’s no Emergency, is there? Well there never has been. In the past.
But at the other end of the scale if there’s a Probability that covid will certainly come into your State and infect and kill everyone well by God there’s a State of Emergency of the highest order, isn’t there?
Now somewhere between the two lies the true state.
Somewhere between no chance of entry and no chance of significant harm and every certainty of entry and significant harm.
And these things can’t be measured! They are not measured. You can’t take a tape measure to them. Run a ruler over them. They are estimated. By calculating Probabilities.
We don’t even know what level of Probability the govt is using for a trigger for declaration of State of Emergency!
Do we? We’re not told. We don’t even ask.
But they must be asking in Parliament, mustn’t they? For that’s their duty. Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition must be questioning the Government very closely on exactly what figures they have for Probabilities and where they get them from and what they use for a ‘trigger’ point for the declaration.
It would probably be a bone of hot contention what the Probabilistic figure should be before a State of Emergency should be declared.
For, of course, the other edge of the sword: the Probabilities of harm from interventions would also be closely monitored and calculated.
They’d have to be, wouldn’t they? You can’t take measures to protect people that harm more than they protect.
And in both instances the measuring can only be done by estimating Probabilities which, as I say, as anyone can see, requires those excellent mathematical skills that astound us all but which build this modern world of ours.
The two sets of Probabilities are juxtaposed and the steps we should take in the future become manifest. The lesser of two evils is what we do, of course.
So where are the maths? What are the Probabilities? Where are the mathematicians and statisticians, academics, theorists. etc. etc…
They are missing from the debate. And no one seems to be calling for them. Well I am.
I would like to know what’s going on. Get a handle on it. Get some measures.
From people who know how to calculate.
It is virtually hopeless but there’s at least one petition for sanity and it may do some good.
But I doubt it. Sorry to be so downbeat, but just look around.
Anyway, here it is: http://chng.it/vBfkrMX89G
Alex Berenson reveals a Lancet study that found THE factor for requiring intensive care or dying for under 60’s is Obesity.
The lethality of Covid is miniscule for under 60’s in any case.
Remove the overweight cohort and it gets down to totally trivial.
Give the sick, the elderly, etc., some support and we’re home free. Will governments do that? Not on your life. Literally. They’re hell bent on killing you and anyone else up to and including the whole nation. Any nation. What’d collateralglobal just say – 40 million kids missed out on their vaccinations because of this covid scare?
Covid scare. By people devoted to vaccines at the drop of a hat. Totally convinced of their efficacy and paramount need. And denying them to 40 million kids. Yep. That’s about the size of it.
No. It’s not. The size is truly much bigger. Much.
Anyway…. here’s Alex Berenson’s post:
I think it is time to declare a state of emergency.
The population has wisely adopted a ‘better safe than sorry’ attitude and ‘what’s the easiest way for me right now’ stance and therefore has done what the governments have told them to do.
Following ludicrous, useless and counterproductive practices that’d leave you gasping.
Because they felt no real harm. Bit of inconvenience. Bit of a bother. Nothing they couldn’t take in their stride, for the most part. So wear a mask. Okay. So ‘social distance’. Okay. So you can’t go to the restaurant, okay, save the money.
And so on.
Nothing they couldn’t handle.
And at the same time avoiding, if it’s true it is there, a terrible disease.
And at the same time avoiding having to work out who’s right and who’s wrong between these two big mouth warring parties with all their videos and ‘experts’ and ‘studies’ esoteric terminology about epidemiology and etc…
So it was kinda win-win even if a little inconvenient here and there.
And now it’s nearly all over.
They don’t know the details and they don’t much care but apparently restrictions are relaxing everywhere, cases are going down, deaths are going down, there’s a number of vaccines and it’s all over.
So back to normal, just relax and thank god that’s all over and continue with our lives.
So that’s cause for declaration of a state of emergency.
Because a massive lie has been propounded and shoved down everyone’s throat: that covid was some kind of killer threat exceptional virus whereas in fact it’s no different to what we can expect to have occur continually throughout the rest of time.
Because currently there’s thousands, even millions of deaths and sickness, injury, directly attributable to the interventions and they are continuing both domestically and internationally.
Because governments have established a de facto right to be able to lock up the whole population on a whim without question, without redress, without consultation, without justification, without specified term.
Because governments have established a de facto right to demand every citizen reports their movements continually throughout each and every day.
Because governments has established these powers on the basis of decree circumventing or short circuiting due process, the democratic process. On the grounds of ’emergency powers’ when a state of emergency exists.
But no state of emergency was every shown to exist, never did exist. Not state that will not be repeated numerous times in the normal course of events in the future and hasn’t happened numerous times in the past – much more dramatically and potently and without any ’emergency’ having been declared or even contemplated.
Hence governments have established a right to declare emergencies whenever they wish without justification and imprison and impoverish whole populations thenceforth.
Because governments have hidden all truths concerning therapeutic measure currently available and have stifled all debate and discouraged all education and open-ness.
Because insanity and unreason have become an official norm.
This is an emergency. I haven’t been able to spell out even a fraction of it. But it is an emergency.
And what makes it an emergency is that the people are apparently totally unaware.
They are about to go about their business ‘as usual’, blissfully unconscious of the damage done in the recent past, the damage current and the damage yet to come.
There is a state of emergency. The people are being set back into a state of peonage in their sleep, in their blissful unawareness.
I just realised we’re truly living in revolutionary times. There’s been a revolution. We’re living through a revolution.
Was reading a comments section on an AIER post and a commentator said what was needed was a revolution to ‘restore the republic’.
I started out trying to say that wouldn’t work and then I found myself realising there is a revolution.
This is it: