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Where’s the Statisticians, the Mathematicians?

I just realised the whole Covid mess is about statistics and maths, isn’t it?

There’s whole towns in Aus here walking around wearing masks and pretending to do ‘distancing’ and closing businesses, etc. etc,  all because Covid,  last seen hundreds and hundreds of kilometres away and supposedly immediately well locked up – might suddenly appear and start infecting people.

A chance, see?

There’s assumed to be a chance that it will  happen.

A chance that is large enough to justify the imposition of these measures that don’t have some kind of remote chance of causing harm but in fact start doing it immediately.

Then they do things like ‘relax’ the impositions.  All all the basis of chance.  Like today you can have 5 people in that room you only could have 4 people in yesterday.

Or you can have 20 people in your shop instead of 15.

Or you can now open these businesses where yesterday they had to be closed.  That just happened here.  Now you can open your gym.

Now that’s presumably – definitely – predicated on ‘chance’.

They have calculated that the chance of someone getting covid in those settings has somehow been reduced to where they can ‘relax’ these prohibitions by that much.

They, of course, let’s pretend, have calculated that the chances of these ‘settings’ in such and such a place are appropriate – they ‘match’ – the prevailing ‘chances’ existing outside the premise doors.

Obviously.  If the chances outside the door are such that nearly any person who comes in will have covid then you’d have to have a setup inside where the chance of passing covid on are diminishingly small.

And the other way round.  So if the chances of having covid outside were nil then the setup inside could be such that you’d inevitably get covid if you were in there and someone had it – but no one will have it because they can’t because we know the outside is totally absent covid.

So it is all ‘chances’, isn’t it?

That’s another word for ‘Probabilities’.

They are a big deal.  Quantum mechanics is all Probabilities.  Our world being build on quantum mechanics nowadays, courtesy of our satellite comms,  there’s heaps and heaps of people who very well understand all about Probabilities and calculating them.

In fact there probably always have been.  There’s always been a surprising (to us unmathematically inclined) number of people with amazing mathematical abilities.

So to make sense of it all we just need to  know all about these Probabilities.  We could then walk in step with the governments, couldn’t we?

Shoulder to shoulder.  We’d agree totally with every move.

But there’s not a word.  Not a figure.  Not a Probability ever put before us.

No famous mathematicians or unfamous mathematicians trying to get our attention,  trying to put facts and figures and calculations before us.

The nearest I can think of is the statisticians who look at the data and draw conclusions from it regarding infection rates and such.  They would be an integral part of the whole thing but they don’t go on from there and lay out the Probabilities as they pertain to your corner grocery in woop-woop NSW, do they?

Or even the Woollies in woop-woop.

And we need to know the Probabilities so that appropriate measures can be adopted.  Whether to close places up.  Whether to tell people to keep their distance.  Whether to tell them to wear masks.  Whether to tell me not to touch.  And so on…

And Probabilities to cover every eventuality within reason.  I mean windy or not windy outside,  I mean hot or cold, in sunshine or out of it,  I mean air conditioned inside or not  I mean high ceilinged or low, I mean fans or no fans, open windows or closed windows…. humidity… vapour pressure..

Needs highly skilled, highly technical,  very well versed mathematical people to do all those calculations.

And clearly they’ve been done else our govts wouldn’t be happily and so promptly and in so much detail laying out these conditions, would they?

They must know what they’re doing mustn’t they?

Well  how about letting us in on it?

Why isn’t it a hot topic of discussion amongst mathematicians and statisticians young and old?

Why are we hearing nothing about it?

It goes on:  consider the question of ‘Emergency’.

None of these ‘laws’,  these ‘mandates’,  would be legal if it were not for a ‘State of Emergency’.

You know?  You know that, of course.  A ‘State of Emergency’ has to be declared by each State Parliament and then they can let the dogs loose.  Excuse the metaphor.

They can then make laws ‘off the cuff’,  they can ‘govern by fiat’,  they can do all the things that in a parliamentary democracy they are forbidden to do.

And that’s exactly what happens.  What has happened and what is still happening.  States of Emergency are declared by the Parliaments and then they start issuing the laws.  And the coppers then start arresting people on beaches and pregnant women at home.  And quite right, too, of course, else they wouldn’t do it. You can’t make a good man do things beyond his conscience.

Now here’s the point:  A State of Emergency also depends wholly on Probabilities, doesn’t it?

If there’s no chance of covid coming into your State then there’s no Emergency, is there?

If covid coming into your State is in fact just the same as a common cold coming into  your State then there’s no Emergency, is there?

If covid coming into  your State is in fact just the same as a severe flu coming into your State then there’s no Emergency, is there? Well there never has been.  In the past.

But at the other end of the scale if there’s a Probability that covid will certainly come into your State and infect and kill everyone well by God there’s a State of Emergency of the highest order, isn’t there?

Now somewhere between the two lies the true state.

Somewhere between no chance of entry and no chance of significant harm and every certainty of entry and significant harm.

And these things can’t be measured!  They are not measured. You can’t take a tape measure to them.  Run a ruler over them.  They are estimated.  By calculating Probabilities.

We don’t even know what level of Probability the govt is using for a trigger for declaration of State of Emergency!

Do we?  We’re not told.  We don’t even ask.

But they must be asking in Parliament, mustn’t they? For that’s their duty.  Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition must be questioning the Government very closely on exactly what figures they have for Probabilities and where they get them from and what they use for a ‘trigger’ point for the declaration.

It would probably be a bone of hot contention what the Probabilistic figure should be before a State of Emergency should be declared.

For, of course, the other edge of the sword: the Probabilities of harm from interventions would also be closely monitored and calculated.

They’d have to be, wouldn’t they?  You can’t take measures to protect people that harm more than they protect.

And in both instances the measuring can only be done by estimating Probabilities which, as I say, as anyone can see, requires those excellent mathematical skills that astound us all but which build this modern world of ours.

The two sets of Probabilities are juxtaposed and the steps we should take in the future become manifest.  The lesser of two evils is what we do, of course.

So where are the maths? What are the Probabilities?  Where are the mathematicians and statisticians, academics, theorists. etc. etc…

They are missing from the debate.  And no one seems to be calling for them.  Well I am.

I would like to know what’s going on.  Get a handle on it. Get some measures.

From people who know how to calculate.

 

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Jeremy Hammond CDC is Lying, Outright!

Jeremy Hammon is an independent investigative journalist and he’s right into the whole vaccine thing.
He points out the sheer irrationality etc. of the covid vaccine thing.
You can google his site and go there and sign up for his (free) newsletters.
Here’s part of his latest one:
What We’ve Learned So Far
To summarize, as briefly as I can, what I’ve already covered:

  • The public is being told by the CDC and the entire medical establishment that natural immunity is insufficient protection and inferior to the immunity induced by COVID-19 vaccines.
  • This claim rests, firstly, on the argument that waning antibodies in the blood equals loss of immunity.
  • The entire scientific community, certainly including the CDC, knows that this premise is false.
  • In truth, it is normal for antibodies to wane rapidly after a peak following infection.
  • Furthermore, the rate of antibody decay is not constant but levels off and plateaus, and even low levels of antibodies are known to be sufficient to destroy the virus before it can enter and replicate in human cells.
  • Furthermore, there are immune responses other than antibodies that are protective. Helper T cells coordinate a broad array of cellular immune responses, including induction of B cells differentiating into plasma cells that can churn out virus-specific antibodies as needed — if needed. Killer T cells search out and destroy infected cells to limit and clear infection and prevent disease.
  • Furthermore, even if a detectable level of antibodies disappears entirely or was never developed in the first place, there is both T cell and B cell memory, the latter of which includes induction of long-lived bone marrow plasma cells that can churn out highly potent antibodies if needed in the event of reexposure. The induction of these cells indicates long-term immunity — probably lasting decades or even a lifetime.
  • Interestingly, studies have shown that infection with “common cold” coronaviruses induces cross-reactive T cell immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 that are likely to reduce disease severity if not to prevent significant infection in the first place — with or without antibodies.
  • The vaccines, on the other hand, have not been shown to induce long-lived immunological memory.
  • The medical establishment’s claim rests, secondly, on the argument that vaccination “boosts” natural immunity to afford better protection, the false premise of which is that more antibodies equals better immunity.
  • In truth, antibodies are neither always sufficient nor even necessary for immunity to viruses, and this is the case for SARS-CoV-2. People who never develop antibodies can still clear an infection while experiencing only mild symptoms or no clinical disease at all, whereas people who develop a high antibody titer but have deficiencies in T cell immunity can still die from COVID-19.
  • Furthermore, far from a higher level of neutralizing antibodies being associated with stronger immunity, a high antibody titer is associated with more severe COVID-19, whereas individuals with highly effective immune responses that rapidly clear the infection without significant illness tend to develop fewer antibodies or none at all.
The Narrow Immunological Focus of COVID-19 Vaccines
So, that brings me to where I left off in my last newsletter. The next point I want to emphasize is that the vaccines do not induce the same immune responses as infection.

Briefly, without getting too much into the details, both the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) and the vector vaccine (Johnson & Johnson) work by injecting genetic instructions into the body that enter the cells and induce them to produce the spike protein of the original Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2 — which is now extinct outside of laboratories.

Hence, the immune responses induced by vaccination only include responses to the spike protein, whereas infection induces immune responses to the whole virus.

Importantly, T cell responses appear to focus at least equally, if not predominantly, on the nucleocapsid and membrane proteins.

The route of exposure is important, too. Infection occurs through the respiratory tract, and induction of mucosal immunity in the tract lining is important for limiting transmissibility of the virus from an infected individual.

Scientists from the start anticipated that getting a shot in the arm would not induce strong mucosal immunity, both because of the narrow focus on the spike and because vaccines largely bypass innate immune defenses and do not induce the same adaptive immune responses due to the differing route of delivery.

Tellingly, as I’ve reported on my social media (see links to follow me at the foot of any newsletter), the CDC just updated its public health guidance for fully vaccinated individuals to tell them that they need to start wearing masks again when in public indoor settings.

In Israel, the first country to implement a mass vaccination campaign aiming to vaccinate the entire eligible population, according to mainstream Israeli news media, health ministry data show that half of recent COVID-19 cases are fully vaccinated individuals.

Israeli military intelligence has also warned since January that, due to the suboptimal immunity conferred by vaccines, the mass vaccination campaign could put evolutionary pressure on SARS-CoV-2 leading to the emergence of a variant that can escape vaccine-conferred immunity.

That gets us into the third argument used to support the CDC’s recommendation for people who are already immune to still get vaccinated, which is that vaccines offer better protection against variants.

We’ll thoroughly debunk that lie, too, in due time. That’s all for now!

In Solidarity,

Jeremy

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Lancet: Obesity is THE factor for < 60's

 

Alex Berenson reveals a Lancet study that found THE factor for requiring intensive care or dying for under 60’s is Obesity.

The lethality of Covid is miniscule for under 60’s in any case.

Remove the overweight cohort and it gets down to totally trivial.

Give the sick, the elderly, etc., some support and we’re home free.  Will governments do that?  Not on your life. Literally.  They’re hell bent on killing you and anyone else up to and including the whole nation.   Any nation.  What’d collateralglobal just say – 40 million kids missed out on their vaccinations because of this covid scare?

Covid scare. By people devoted to vaccines at the drop of a hat. Totally convinced of their efficacy and paramount need.  And denying them to 40 million kids.  Yep.  That’s about the size of it.

No. It’s not.  The size is truly much bigger.  Much.

Anyway….  here’s Alex Berenson’s post:

https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/why-covid-is-like-aids

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Got To Declare An Emergency !

I think it is time to declare a state of emergency.

The population has wisely adopted a ‘better safe than sorry’ attitude and ‘what’s the easiest way for me right now’ stance and therefore has done what the governments have told them to do.

Following ludicrous, useless and counterproductive practices that’d leave you gasping.

Because they felt no real harm. Bit of inconvenience.  Bit of a bother.  Nothing they couldn’t take in their stride, for the most part.  So wear a mask. Okay.  So ‘social distance’.  Okay.  So you can’t go to the restaurant, okay, save the money.

And so on.

Nothing they couldn’t handle.

And at the same time avoiding, if it’s true it is there, a terrible disease.

And at the same time avoiding having to work out who’s right and who’s wrong between these two big mouth warring parties with all their videos and ‘experts’ and ‘studies’ esoteric terminology about epidemiology and etc…

So it was kinda win-win even if a little inconvenient here and there.

And now it’s nearly all over.

They don’t know the details and they don’t much care but apparently restrictions are relaxing everywhere,  cases are going down, deaths are going down, there’s a number of vaccines and it’s all over.

So back to normal, just relax and thank god that’s all over and continue with our lives.

So that’s cause for declaration of a state of emergency.

Isn’t it?

Because a massive lie has been propounded and shoved down everyone’s throat:  that covid was some kind of killer threat exceptional virus whereas in fact it’s no different to what we can expect to have occur continually throughout the rest of time.

Because currently there’s thousands, even millions of deaths and sickness, injury, directly attributable to the interventions and they are continuing both domestically and internationally.

Because governments have established a de facto right to be able to lock up the whole population on a whim without question, without redress, without consultation, without  justification, without specified term.

Because governments have established a de facto right to demand every citizen reports their movements continually throughout each and every day.

Because governments has established these powers on the basis of decree circumventing or short circuiting due process, the democratic process.  On the grounds of ’emergency powers’ when a state of emergency exists.

But no state of emergency was every shown to exist, never did exist.  Not state that will not be repeated numerous times in the normal course of events in the future and hasn’t happened numerous times in the past – much more dramatically and potently and without any ’emergency’ having been declared or even contemplated.

Hence governments have established a right to declare emergencies whenever they wish without justification and imprison and impoverish whole populations  thenceforth.

Because governments have hidden all truths concerning therapeutic measure currently available and have stifled all debate and discouraged all education and open-ness.

Because insanity and unreason have become an official norm.

This is an emergency.  I haven’t been able to spell out even a fraction of it.  But it is an emergency.

And what makes it an emergency is that the people are apparently totally unaware.

They are about to go about their business ‘as usual’, blissfully unconscious of the damage done in the recent past, the damage current and the damage yet to come.

There is a state of emergency. The people are being set back into a state of peonage in their sleep, in their blissful unawareness.

 

 

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Vive la Revolution !

I just realised we’re truly living in revolutionary times.  There’s been a revolution.  We’re living through a revolution.

Was reading a comments section on an  AIER post and a commentator said what was needed was a revolution to ‘restore the republic’.

I started out trying to say that wouldn’t work and then I found  myself realising there is a revolution.

 

This is it:

 

I think maybe your are thinking of a ‘traditional’ revolution with guns and bombs? Without doubt many Americans are. But such a revolution would only do immense harm and fix nothing. Kill thousands. Create hatred and divisions for decades. Ensconce the powerful more securely.

Look how the Democrats have reacted to the Capitol thing?

Have you any idea? You know in the UK at least notionally the Houses of Parliament are open to the public to wander through at any time as they wish.

The notion is that the seat of government belongs to the people. It is the people.

In the USA we’ve got a clear vivid demonstration that govt belongs to govt and it fears and hates the people and manifests towards them a clear threat: the point of a sword, the barrel of a gun. Tells them ‘you are not welcome here’.

Go for armed revolution against a machine like that and you’ve simply got terrible destruction. You fix nothing.

But a thought: we’ve just had a revolution.

And we didn’t see it.

We’ve just had a revolution successfully take over the country, at least, the USA, but even, possibly, the whole world.

Those in power have joined forces with any and all disaffected groups,

They share an understanding that reason, logic, common sense, science, truth, honesty, justice, rights, etc.. are all to be mocked, belittled, denigrated, trodden on and ignored.

It’s a party. A feast. Those that ‘get it’ happily ‘play it’ to the hilt.

The enemy is the norm, the established understanding of the world with its logic, its reasoning, its rules, its everything.

To play the game you must know that, accept that. And then you pick up a convenient flag and any one will do – BLM, Antifa, Gay rights, Greenies… whatever.. any will do. If you can’t find one you like a new one has been created to cover all: ‘anti-white privilege (even whites can wave this flag).

And then you loudly (it is important to be loud) wave it and scream abuse and demands in all directions.

State governors, University chancellors, Business leaders, Police chiefs, Local Councils and on and on will bow to your demands and you’ll be allowed to destroy whatever you like..

Go without a flag and speak reasonably and ask for established norms to be kept and laws to be adhered to and justice be served and you’ll reveal yourself as the enemy, the despised enemy and you’ll be trodden down.

It is a return to the ‘law of the gun’. To ‘might is right’.

Our proud Western world boast is that the people rule the people for the people and by the people. That ‘right’ is what the we the people decide is right.

This means that ‘right’ and ‘rule’ are by consensus and then by law.

So that the fact that you’ve got a lot of power doesn’t at all mean that you can or should tell us all what to do.

We’ve said that what matters is what’s right, not who’s the most powerful.

Well this is revolution to counter that. Throw away all that high minded fanciful philosophical thinking. A return to brutal realities.

A return to the fundamental truth: Might is Right.

Yes. It always was a fundamental truth and we surmounted it by realising that in the end we, collectively, were the ‘might’ and we, collectively could control and direct that might in accord with principles and philosophies. And we said it’s a done thing: from now on might is no longer right but controlled and directed might controlled and directed by us all collectively, that will be the right.

Well now there’s a revolution. That concept has been overturned, thrown out, dispensed with and parties from the top and the bottom of society have decided to return to and embrace the fundamental primitive truth that ‘might is right’.

So the govt says we have the might to do as we please so you’re all in home imprisonment and you’re all to wear masks and your all to take this vaccine and you’re not raise you voice in demur or write in demur or protest and we’ll spend all your money on whatever we like and we’ll destroy your businesses, your hopes, your dreams, your aspirations…. your everything, as we please.

And those ‘at the bottom’ say we’ll gather in groups and we’ll rampage through the cities and we’ll loot and burn and pillage and accost and abuse and attack and even kill at will and without hindrance….

And those at the top and those at the bottom recognise each other and combine in an alliance and thus it does. This we’ve seen.

This we see right now.

Kindred spirits sharing in the revolution. Plundering. Raping. Taking.

In the end, of course, the overwhelmingly more powerful will crush those smaller groups but in the meantime they serve to deflect attention away from what the govt is doing.

So it is a revolution.

The whole western world paradigm has changed from rule by the people for the people to rule by might.

That is 1984 has come but it took us by surprise. We couldn’t believe it. And it came in reverse, so to speak. Rather than ‘Big Brother’ being elected into office and then issuing his edicts and changing the nation they did it the other way around.

They changed the nation first and will reveal themselves only later. Elections we can forget.

And who knew: ‘Big Brother’ has been assisted by all these little groups within the people. By all the criminal groups within the people, even.. How on earth could that be?

On what common grounds. Where’s the political philosophy that unites a murderous band of arsonists and heads of government?

Archaic thinking. There’s no fancy political philosophies needed. Only a gut instinctive understanding that ‘might is right’ and you act swiftly and noisily and take whatever you want as quickly as you can.

And that’s what’s happening right now.

You’ve got your revolution. What you want is an anti-revolution. That’ll be when its calm again. And we’ll be able to look at the fences that surround us.